adults online in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. adults online and verified their turnout in the two elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text.Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2018 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016. Trump's office did not respond to a request for comment. "Overall, it looks like he will be strongly discouraged from running in 2024, which he may not do for his own reasons - such as avoiding embarrassment and keeping the money he is currently raising," she told AFP. Irina Tsukerman, a New York-based national security lawyer and geopolitical analyst, said Trump was increasingly perceived as a "political liability" - incapable of winning a future presidential election even against a weak Democrat. Other observers though expect the tycoon's many legal woes, including the mushrooming scandal over his mishandling of classified government secrets, to be as a big a drag on his political prospects as the performance of his midterm picks. "Trump's support in the Republican Party is far too resilient to be damaged by a poor showing by the party this November." "Despite losing reelection, two impeachments, nearly a dozen serious criminal probes, and countless scandals that would have long ago sunk most any other politician, Trump remains the clear leader of the Republican Party," said political analyst Nicholas Creel, of Georgia College and State University. Trump watchers often point out that much of the former president's die-hard base cares little about the Senate or Washington politics in any case. "Some primary voters in 2024 may think twice about supporting him again, especially if a popular alternative such as DeSantis also runs."Ī note of caution: the polls are expected to tighten before November and all of Trump's most divisive candidates could yet triumph in photo finishes.Įxpect some of the circling sharks to back off if this happens - and for Trump to look suddenly like a political genius with a bold vision rather than a liability.
"But Trump has a lot to lose because if his candidates flame out, then he will be seen as having lost his magic," Greenberg told AFP. "(If) Senate candidates like Walker, Oz, Vance or Blake Masters ultimately lose in numbers that maintains Democrats' Senate majority, Mr Trump will be widely blamed," he said.Ī poor election night for Trump candidates would be chum in the water for his 2024 rivals, a list that potentially includes outspoken anti-Trumpist Liz Cheney, Florida's firebrand governor Ron DeSantis and ex-vice president Mike Pence.Ĭheney aside, Republican presidential hopefuls have largely continued to genuflect to Trump through his post-presidency.īut figures such as ex-secretary of state Mike Pompeo, estranged Trump ally Chris Christie and one-time UN ambassador Nikki Haley could be emboldened by poor results on November 8.ĭavid Greenberg, a media and history professor at Rutgers University, said the former president - for now the clear frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination - had "little to gain" in the midterms. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell - who needs just one gain to take the upper chamber from the Democrats - has offered oblique hints that he sees "candidate quality" as a problem. The story is the same in Georgia, where ex-football star Herschel Walker faces questions over domestic abuse, dishonesty about his past and mental fitness.Īnd in Arizona, Blake Masters is struggling in what should be a winnable seat with a campaign that Politico has described as "hardline nationalist."
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